2:07 PM: Academy Award Nominations Announced, The Tard freaks out

Earlier this morning, the nominations for the Academy Awards were announced, and as usual, there were no real surprises. You've got the token fringe film up for best picture (Sideways), the Best Actor who's a shoe-in for playing a disabled person and not completely embarassing himself in the process (Jamie Foxx in Ray), and no respect whatsoever of young Hollywood (no nominations for The Life Aquatic?). Still, I must trudge on, and make my predictions as quickly and arbitrarily as possible.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: The Aviator? (I've only seen Aviator and Finding Neverland)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Aviator
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx for Ray

Will win: Jamie Foxx in Ray
Should win: Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening for Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno for Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake
Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Will win: Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Should win: Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Alda for The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church for Sideways
Jamie Foxx for Collateral
Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen for Closer

Will win: Thomas Haden Church for Sideways
Should win: Anybody but Clive Owen

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
Laura Linney for Kinsey
Virginia Madsen for Sideways
Sophie Okonedo for Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman for Closer

Will win: Natalie Portman for Closer
Should win: Who cares?

Best Achievement in Directing

Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Taylor Hackford for Ray
Mike Leigh for Vera Drake
Alexander Payne for Sideways
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator

Will win: Martin Scorsese
Should win: Martin Scorsese

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

The Aviator - John Logan
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind - Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth 1
Hotel Rwanda (2004) - Terry George, Keir Pearson
The Incredibles (2004) - Brad Bird
Vera Drake (2004) - Mike Leigh

Will win: Eternal Sunshine
Should win: Eternal Sunshine

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Before Sunset - Richard Linklater, Kim Krizan, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Finding Neverland - David Magee
Million Dollar Baby - Paul Haggis
Diarios de motocicleta - Jose Rivera
Sideways - Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

Will win: Before Sunset
Should win: Before Sunset

Best Achievement in Cinematography

The Aviator - Robert Richardson
Shi mian mai fu (House of Flying Daggers) - Xiaoding Zhao
The Passion of the Christ - Caleb Deschanel
The Phantom of the Opera - John Mathieson
Un long dimanche de fiançailles (Very Long Engagement) - Bruno Delbonnel

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: House of Flying Daggers (apparently)

Best Achievement in Editing

The Aviator - Thelma Schoonmaker
Collateral - Jim Miller, Paul Rubell
Finding Neverland - Matt Chesse
Million Dollar Baby - Joel Cox
Ray (2004/I) - Paul Hirsch

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: Collateral (the quickest 2 hour+ movies I've seen since Heat)

Best Achievement in Art Direction

The Aviator - Dante Ferretti
Finding Neverland - Gemma Jackson
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Rick Heinrichs
The Phantom of the Opera - Anthony Pratt
Un long dimanche de fiançailles (Very Long Engagement) - Aline Bonetto, Mathieu Junot, Delphine Mabed

Will win: Finding Neverland
Should win: Lemony Snicket

Best Achievement in Costume Design

The Aviator - Sandy Powel
Finding Neverland - Alexandra Byrne, Mary Kelly
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Colleen Atwood, Donna O'Neal
Ray - Sharen Davis
Troy - Bob Ringwood

Will win: The Aviator
Should win: Lemony Snicket

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Finding Neverland - Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - John Williams
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events - Thomas Newman
The Passion of the Christ - John Debney
The Village - James Newton Howard

Will win: Harry Potter
Should win: Finding Neverland (everyone knows John Williams farts out symphonys daily, give someone else the glory for once)

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

The Phantom of the Opera - Andrew Lloyd Webber, Charles Hart ("Learn To Be Lonely")
The Polar Express - Glen Ballard, Alan Silvestri ("Believe")
Shrek 2 - David Bryson, Adam Duritz, David Immerglück, Matthew Malley, Dan Vickrey ("Accidentally In Love")
Diarios de motocicleta (Motorcycle Diaries) - Jorge Drexler ("Al Otro Lado Del Río")
Choristes, Les (The Chorus) - Bruno Coulais, Christophe Barratier ("Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)"

Will win: Phantom of the Opera (it has to win something)
Should win: Don't care

Best Achievement in Makeup

Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
The Passion of the Christ
Mar adentro (Sea Inside)

Will win: The Passion of the Christ
Should win: Lemony Snicket

Best Achievement in Sound

The Aviator
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Ray
Spider-Man 2

Will win: Spider-Man 2
Should win: The Aviator

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2

Will win: The Incredibles
Should win: Spider-Man 2

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - Tim Burke, Roger Guyett, Bill George, John Richardson
I, Robot - John Nelson
Spider-Man 2 - John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara, John Frazier

Will win: Harry Potter
Should win: Harry Potter

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

The Incredibles
Shark Tale
Shrek 2

Will win: The Incredibles
Should win: The Incredibles

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Choristes, Les (The Chorus) (France)
Untergang, Der (The Downfall) (Germany)
Mar adentro (Sea Inside) (Spain)
Så som i himmelen (Sweden)
Yesterday (South Africa)

Best Documentary, Features

Born Into Brothels: Calcutta's Red Light Kids - Zana Briski, Ross Kauffman
Geschichte vom weinenden Kamel, Die (Weeping Camel) (2003) - Tobias Siebert
Super Size Me - Morgan Spurlock
Tupac: Resurrection (2003) - Karolyn Ali, Preston L. Holmes, Lauren Lazin
Twist of Faith (2005) - Eddie Schmidt

Will win: Super Size Me
Should win: Super Size Me

Best Documentary, Short Subjects

Autism Is a World
The Children of Leningradsky
Hardwood
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion

Best Short Film, Animated

Lorenzo - Mike Gabriel
Ryan - Chris Landreth
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke - Jeff Fowler
Guard Dog - Bill Plympton

Best Short Film, Live Action

Everything In This Country Must
Little Terrorist
7:35 In the Morning
Two Cars, One Night (2003)
Wasp (2003)